Challenging to Assess Future Outcomes

As we think about our futures, it proves challenging to accurately assess the value and outcomes of future events.

I will start with a very random example. How much would I value spending my 30th birthday at the beach? I may think I know, but the reality is that this is such an abstract concept, with irrational inputs that make it really challenging to assign any sort of tangible weight or perspective to this instance. Would I value this beach trip more than I would value a beach trip for my 22nd birthday? Do I even like beaches? Will I like them in 10 years? What will my opportunity cost look like then? Will I have a family? Will I want to go away from work? Will there even be beaches remaining?

This line of question yields the following conclusion: making accurate predictions is really hard.

I believe this to be true. It is why I do not have any real tangible long term goals. I do have a compass, a set of values that I believe in today (that are subject to change). But I do not have a “life mission” paired with real metrics or anything I can measure. I do not because I know it is impossible to analyze the efficacy of these types of things to any degree of accuracy. No long term goals.

Rather, I try to apply principles from “The Score Takes Care of Itself.” I have very acute short term goals (very very specific things I want to get done on a 1-3 week basis). I focus on the inputs and let the outputs take care of themselves.