Inaccurate Predictions

The technology bubble can be paralyzing. It prevents you from seeing things clearly and accurately.

Then again, predicting the future has never been an easy task in general ~ so why do “technologists” feel like it’s their duty to do so.

The future is an exciting thing to think about. The world, on a macro-level, is actually in a really great place today. Technology, for better or worse, will impact that world we live in.

It’s our duty, as people in the present, to do the best that we can to be a part of building the future. If we don’t, someone else will. It’s inevitable that things change, why not be a part of accelerating that change.

Anyways, the real crux of this little thought I’m having roots itself in something I’ve seen a few times posted. It’s the simple mantra that:

We tend to overestimate how quickly something will happen in the short term but underestimate the long term effect of what this thing will do.

I think that is super true.

Take, for example, Virtual Reality.

It’s coming. It’s coming. Everyone always said. When?!? When is it coming? You said that back in the 1960s.

Though everyone has a right to say that this new technology is coming ~ which it probably is ~ many of us (especially those living in this magical startup bubble) thought it was coming sooner than the world was ready for. Many of us discount theĀ humanity behind tech.

I think this roots itself in one thing: empathy.

We often neglect the humanity that powers tech. I think this leads us to that over and underestimation I spoke about.